Europe And The United States Economy Deteriorates Thailand'S Textile Exports Are Not Optimistic

At a time when the consumption, employment and manufacturing indicators show that the US economy is slowing down, although the US government has passed the bill to raise the debt ceiling before the deadline, it must accept the conditions for reducing budget spending, which will inevitably limit the future Economics Growth. At the same time, credit rating agencies continue to pay attention to the financial situation of the United States, and do not deny that there is still a risk of further downgrade of the United States credit rating.

For the euro area market While the worries about the debt problems of the "four European pig countries" (PIGS Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) have not been eliminated, the focus has now shifted to Italy and Spain, the third and fourth largest economies in the euro area. They are worried about the possible debt default problems of these two countries, leading to a sharp rise in the bond yields of Italy and Spain.

Worried about the relationship between the United States and euro In the case that the regional economy may fall into a second recession, the Taihua Farmers Research Center believes that the Thai industry directly affected by the above situation is highly dependent on the United States and the euro area market.

Among them, the industries that are most affected are those that rely on the United States and the euro area for more than 40%, including textiles, furniture and parts. As for canned seafood, processed shrimp and chicken products, canned fruit and processed fruit products, although they are highly dependent on the above two markets, these products are consumer necessities, so they are less affected.

The industries with the second degree of impact include electrical appliances and parts, refrigeration compressors, rubber products, motorcycles and parts, printed circuit boards, computers and their equipment and parts, radio receivers and televisions and parts, aviation equipment parts, air conditioners and parts, transformers and parts, jewelry, etc.

The industries less affected are agricultural products, automobiles and their equipment and parts, chemicals and plastic granules.

If the United States and the euro area, which together account for 40% of the global economy, fall into a second recession, countries around the world will be affected, leading to a significant drop in the global economy, which may drag down the growth rate of Thailand's exports in 2012, and lower than the 12-17% growth rate expected by the Taihua Farmers Research Center. Under adverse circumstances, Thailand's exports may experience negative growth, as they did during the last economic crisis in the United States. However, in general, it still depends on other factors, especially the trend of Asian economy and commodity prices.

As for the impact on the Thai economy, during the economic crisis in the United States, the Thai economy was dragged back or shrunk. In the best case, if the economy of China and other Asian countries still has considerable growth momentum, and the Thai government intensifies its stimulus measures, the Thai economy is still expected to achieve positive growth, but the growth rate will not exceed 2%.

In the case of large fluctuations in the global economy, the exchange rate will tend to continue to fluctuate, and operators, especially exporters, must take more careful management of foreign exchange transactions.